The Twilight Zone: On the Cryptoeconomy in 2026 & Beyond¶

Summary (English)¶

Ryan Watkins argues that the cryptoeconomy is transitioning from cyclical to secular growth, with valuations rationalized after four years of pain, making the multi-year opportunity for top projects severely mispriced—but only a handful of native players will emerge as the true winners as institutional competition intensifies.

The Valuation Reset¶

The cryptoeconomy pulled forward expectations far too aggressively in 2021. Eight smart contract platforms exceeded $100B valuations, DeFi blue-chips traded at 500x price-to-sales, and speculative excess dominated. Most tellingly, Bitcoin hasn't made new highs versus Gold since 2021—despite Trump's "crypto capital" rhetoric, the most successful ETF launch in history, and systematic dollar debasement.

The subsequent four-year bear market exposed structural weaknesses: cyclical revenue models dependent on rising prices, regulatory uncertainty blocking institutions, dual equity-token structures creating misalignment, poor disclosure practices, and lack of shared valuation frameworks. The result has been sustained effort without reward, producing widespread burnout and disillusionment.

The silver lining: prices now reflect these issues. Expectations have reset. Few crypto natives will entertain long-term fundamental theses beyond Bitcoin. The conditions are in place to begin surprising to the upside again.

Structural Issues Being Resolved¶

The cryptoeconomy's structural problems are transitioning from present-day reality to historical artifacts:

Real use cases emerging beyond digital gold: - P2P platforms enabling transactions without intermediaries - Digital dollars accessible to billions with internet - Permissionless 24/7 global exchanges across asset classes - Novel derivatives (event contracts, perpetual swaps) offering predictive insights - Global collateral markets reducing counterparty risk - Democratized asset creation at fractions of a penny - Open fundraising overcoming local economic constraints - Physical infrastructure networks crowdsourcing capital

Alignment improving: Dual equity-token models being rectified as regulatory pressure eases. Projects consolidating revenues into single tokens (Morpho, Uniswap) or clearly delineating onchain revenues for tokens vs. offchain for equity.

Transparency increasing: Third-party data providers maturing (Messari, Blockworks), reducing information asymmetry and enabling better analysis.

Valuation frameworks converging: Growing consensus that 99.9% of assets need cash flows, with BTC and ETH as rare store-of-value exceptions. As fundamental investors enter, rationality will compound over time.

The potential unlock: self-sovereign ownership of onchain cash flows may become as significant as self-sovereign digital stores of value. When else in history could you hold digital bearer assets paid autonomously whenever a program is used, from anywhere on earth?

Winners Solidifying as Standards¶

Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid are emerging as the internet's monetary and financial foundation. Their network effects strengthen daily, anchored by growing ecosystems of assets, applications, businesses, and users. Their permissionless design and global distribution have enabled applications to become some of the fastest-growing businesses worldwide, with unrivaled capital efficiency and revenue velocity.

In the long run, these platforms will likely underpin the financial superapp TAM that leading fintechs are competing for.

Institutional & Enterprise Momentum¶

Wall Street and Silicon Valley are marching full steam ahead. Not a single week passes without fresh announcements: tokenization (BlackRock's BUIDL), stablecoins (Stripe), and everything between. Unlike prior eras, these aren't experiments—they're production-grade products, mostly on public blockchains rather than siloed private systems.

This activity will only accelerate as regulatory clarity works through the system. With "is this legal?" answered, focus shifts to how blockchains expand revenue, reduce costs, and unlock new business models.

Opportunity Mispriced¶

Few industry analysts are modeling exponential growth. Many peers on both sellside and buyside won't even entertain annual growth rates above 20%, fearing they'll seem too optimistic.

With valuations reset after four years of pain, the key question becomes: what if this all does go exponential? What if it actually will pay to dream again?

Winner-Takes-Most, Weak Players Exit¶

While crypto may be inevitable, most individual coins are headed to zero. As crypto becomes inevitable, it attracts greater competition and delivery pressure intensifies. Institutions and enterprises entering the space will clean out weaker players.

This doesn't mean incumbents will win everything and co-opt the technology. But it does mean only a few native players will become the big winners the world reorients around. This isn't cynicism—90% of startups fail in all emerging tech sectors. Public failures shouldn't distract from the bigger picture.

Why Now? The Zeitgeist Alignment¶

No single technology fits today's zeitgeist more than crypto: - Declining trust in institutions across advanced societies - Unsustainable government spending among G7 countries - Blatant currency debasement from the largest fiat issuer - Deglobalization and fragmentation of the international order - Growing thirst for a fairer system - Software continues eating the world (AI as latest accelerant) - Younger generations inheriting wealth from aging boomers

There couldn't be a better time for the cryptoeconomy to exit its bubble.

Beyond the Hype Cycle¶

Many analysts frame this through the Gartner hype cycle or Carlota Perez's "post-frenzy" phase, suggesting best returns are behind us and boring utility follows. The truth is more interesting:

The cryptoeconomy is not a single market maturing in unison, but a collection of products and businesses moving along different adoption curves. Speculation doesn't disappear when technology enters growth phase—it ebbs and flows with sentiment and innovation pace.

We are reimagining money, finance, and how our most important economic institutions are governed. It should be equally fun and exciting as challenging.

The Call to Action¶

Through the fog of disillusionment and uncertainty lies the opportunity of a lifetime for those willing to bet on the new era's sunrise, rather than mourn the old era's sunset.

Your job is to figure out how to best take advantage of this emerging reality, not write endless tweet threads on why it's all doomed.

總結（繁體中文）¶

Ryan Watkins 主張加密經濟正從週期性成長轉向長期性成長，經過四年痛苦後估值已理性化，頂級項目的多年機會被嚴重低估——但隨著機構競爭加劇，只有少數原生玩家會成為真正的贏家。

估值重置期¶

加密經濟在 2021 年過度拉高了期望。八個智能合約平台估值超過 $100B，DeFi 藍籌以 500 倍的市銷率交易，投機過度主導市場。最能說明問題的指標：Bitcoin 自 2021 年以來相對黃金並未創新高——儘管有川普的「加密資本」說法、史上最成功的 ETF 推出，以及系統性的美元貶值。

隨後的四年熊市暴露了結構性弱點：依賴價格上漲的週期性收入模式、監管不確定性阻礙機構參與、股權代幣雙重結構造成利益錯配、資訊揭露不佳，以及缺乏共同的估值框架。結果是持續努力卻沒有回報，產生了普遍的倦怠和幻滅。

好消息：價格現在反映了這些問題。期望已重置。除了 Bitcoin 之外，很少有加密原生人士願意討論長期基本面論點。開始向上驚喜的條件已經到位。

結構性問題正在解決¶

加密經濟的結構性問題正從現實轉變為歷史遺跡：

數位黃金之外的真實用例正在浮現： - 點對點平台實現無中介交易 - 數位美元讓數十億有網路的人可存取 - 無需許可的 24/7 全球跨資產類別交易所 - 新型衍生品（事件合約、永續合約）提供預測洞察 - 全球抵押品市場降低交易對手風險 - 民主化的資產發行（成本僅數分錢） - 開放募資克服地方經濟限制 - 實體基礎設施網路眾籌資本

利益一致性改善： 隨著監管壓力緩解，股權代幣雙重模式正在修正。項目將收入整合到單一代幣（Morpho、Uniswap），或明確劃分鏈上收入歸代幣、鏈下收入歸股權。

透明度提升： 第三方數據提供商成熟（Messari、Blockworks），減少資訊不對稱，實現更好的分析。

估值框架趨同： 越來越多共識認為 99.9% 的資產需要現金流，BTC 和 ETH 是罕見的價值儲存例外。隨著基本面投資者進入，理性會隨時間複合成長。

潛在突破：鏈上現金流的自主所有權可能會和自主數位價值儲存一樣重要。歷史上何時你能持有數位無記名資產，在程式被使用時自動獲得支付，且能在地球任何有網路的地方操作？

贏家正在成為標準¶

Ethereum、Solana 和 Hyperliquid 正在成為網際網路的貨幣和金融基礎。它們的網路效應每天都在增強，由不斷成長的資產、應用、企業和用戶生態系統所支撐。它們的無需許可設計和全球分布使其應用成為世界上成長最快的企業，擁有無與倫比的資本效率和收入速度。

長期來看，這些平台可能會支撐領先金融科技正在競爭的金融超級應用總體可用市場。

機構與企業動能¶

華爾街和矽谷正全速前進。每週都有新公告：代幣化（BlackRock 的 BUIDL）、穩定幣（Stripe）等等。與過去不同，這些不是實驗——它們是生產級產品，大多建立在公鏈而非隔離的私有系統上。

隨著監管明確性在系統中發揮作用，這種活動只會加速。「這合法嗎？」的問題解決後，焦點轉向區塊鏈如何擴大收入、降低成本和解鎖新商業模式。

機會被錯誤定價¶

很少有產業分析師在建模指數成長。許多賣方和買方的同行甚至不敢考慮年成長率超過 20%，擔心顯得太樂觀。

在經過四年痛苦後估值重置的情況下，關鍵問題變成：如果這一切真的走向指數成長會怎樣？如果真的又能重新做夢會怎樣？

贏者通吃，弱者出局¶

雖然加密可能是不可避免的，但大多數個別代幣正在歸零。隨著加密變得不可避免，它吸引了更大的競爭，交付壓力從未如此之高。進入這個領域的機構和企業將清理較弱的玩家。

這並不意味著現有企業會贏得一切並挾持技術。但這確實意味著只有少數原生玩家會成為世界圍繞的大贏家。這不是憤世嫉俗——所有新興技術領域都有 90% 的新創失敗。公開的失敗不應該讓你從更大的格局中分心。

為什麼是現在？時代精神的對齊¶

沒有哪項技術比加密更符合當今的時代精神： - 先進社會對機構的信任下降 - G7 國家不可持續的政府支出 - 最大法幣發行者公然貶值貨幣 - 去全球化和國際秩序的碎片化 - 對更公平系統的渴望日增 - 軟體持續吞噬世界（AI 是最新加速器） - 年輕世代從老齡嬰兒潮世代繼承財富

沒有比現在更好的時機讓加密經濟走出泡沫。

超越炒作週期¶

許多分析師透過 Gartner 炒作週期或 Carlota Perez 的「後狂熱」階段來框架這一時刻，暗示最佳回報已經過去，接下來是更無聊的實用階段。真相更有趣：

加密經濟不是一個統一成熟的單一市場，而是一系列沿著不同採用曲線移動的產品和企業。當技術進入成長階段時，投機不會消失——它只是隨著情緒和創新步伐起伏。

我們正在重新想像貨幣、金融，以及我們最重要的經濟機構如何治理。這應該既有趣又令人興奮，也充滿挑戰。

行動呼籲¶

在幻滅和不確定的迷霧中，對於那些願意押注新時代日出而非哀悼舊時代日落的人來說，這是一生一次的機會。

你的工作是找出如何最好地利用這個新興現實，而不是寫無盡的推文說為什麼一切都注定失敗。

Key Quotes¶

"In 10 years the world will be grateful we built this parallel system." — Ryan's professor, 2018

"Through the fog of disillusionment and uncertainty, lies the opportunity of a lifetime for those willing to bet on the new era's sunrise, rather than mourn the old era's sunset."

"Few forces are as powerful as an idea whose time has come, and the cryptoeconomy has never felt more inevitable."

"Your job from here is to figure out how to best take advantage of this emerging reality, not write endless tweet threads on why it's all doomed."